john p birchall Wager

Evolutionary Economics ... Dixieland Jazz ... Beer Drinking ... there was an evolutionary explanation for everything?!

So wot if this all pervading malarkey was not just an intriguing brainstorm ... suppose it was real reality?

Just suppose natural selection was in fact the only game in town?

The implications were shattering!

But, of course, if, in the fullness of time, evidence of human behaviour emerged which falsified the outcomes of Darwin's insight & Adam the Smith's forge ... and instead human behaviour was indeed the outcome of some supernatural intelligent designer with foresight ... perhaps, a God behind every tree, or even a Bishop, Prince, General or Bureaucrat ... or maybe bog standard Designers indulging in plausible, deliberate, rational, purposeful, intentional, planning? ... and not the evolutionary alternative of an arms race of trial & error learning and differential survival in the face of ignorance. If happenings were not outcomes of a process of copy/vary/select in our environment full of complexity, change, conflict & scarcity ...

In that case there will be some red faces ... including ours.

Sooo ...

'rather than being appalled when we see the problems resulting from bad behaviour, we should be astounded & awed by the fantastical opportunities resulting from good behaviour'

Like everyone else we may be wrong ... but day by day the evidence for the natural selection of good behaviour mounted and became so compelling that we were confident enough to strike a wager with our future great grandchildren's children and their mates -

Wager

We're betting that there will continue to be just THREE essential inseparable characteristics embedded in Complex Adaptive Systems of evolving human social economic behaviour which will tend to aid survival.

Copy / Vary / Select ... growth in a local environment full of complexity, change, conflict & scarcity -

The unleashing of a process of technological & institutional innovation involving the generating & testing of a diversity of ideas which discover & accumulate more survival value for the costs incurred than competing alternatives. The evidence suggests that it could be adaptive efficiency that defines economic efficiency.

we're betting ideas & know how evolve by natural selection ... first pruned in imaginations and then tested for real against the rigours of reality -

COPY - inheritance - experience & vicarious experience - accumulation/imitation of past empirical successes.
'Path Dependency' - social interactions intensify in larger cohesive communities -

ECONOMIES of SCALE from customary TORT LAW (Cooperative Synergies)
... trust ... from HONESTY (instinctive fairness of shares & resentment of cheats from moral sentiments)

... don't be conned by the arbitrary dogma of parasitic & predatory oppressive Bishops, tyrannical Princes, dictatorial Generals or corrupt Bureaucrats
'stick to your knitting' ... 'bypass the blockages & let the blood flow' ... '10,000 hours of education & compound interest'

VARY - diversity - experiment & join clubs of your choice - discovery/creativity of individual differences.
'Trial & Error' - 'nobody knows where the next good idea is coming from' -

SPECIALISATION and TRADE (Personal Responsibility)
... learn ... from HARD WORK (instinctive memory of empirical outcomes from experiments)

... don't be conned by the mythical command & control process of deliberate, rational, purposeful, intentional planning
'mind your own business' ... 'bills have to be paid' ... 'use your imagination'

SELECT - natural selection - differential survival & weeding out failures - compound past empirical science experiments.
'+ve Feedback Loops' - billions of global deals grow mutual benefits and punish cheats -

SYNERGIES from TECHNOLOGY (Brain & Immune Systems)
... invest ... from THRIFT (instinctive immunity from treachery from Due Diligence, Caveat Emptor)

... don't be conned by the cost up & output down arrogance of inevitable parasites & predators
'get on with your job' ... 'you can't pass the buck to others' ... 'save for a rainy day'

Good behaviour & trust is an evolved social survival aid providing some immunity from treachery - parasites & predators, tyranny & oppression, bribery & corruption, bureaucratic kluge

We bet that social cooperative behaviour 2+2=5 will tend to trump selfish compromise 2-2=0 'cos of synergies ... the dice are loaded.

Will you take the bet?

We won't be around to collect ... by then we will have made a little space for future betterment ... and our future great grandchildren's children and their mates will know a lot more than us about education & compound interest ... for sure!

Amongst all the chaos & angst we began to glimpse a sliver of order as our beer glass appeared to be half full -

Economic Growth & the production & protection of 'know how' -

brains of individual folk - production units - moral sentiments, creative diversity and logical reason

immune systems of individual folk - protection units - immunity from treachery, parasites & predators

Our Survival Story -

1. Start with Ignorance then try Darwin's 'natural selection' -

Copy ( learning - trial & error, discovery & accumulation, weeding out failures)

Vary ( diversity - innovation, different folk, at different times, in different places, with different social interactions)

Select ( synergies - specialisation & scale)

2. Unfinished Business - hard work, honesty & thrift 3% pa compound growth of 'know how'!

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