Hi I'm john p birchall
Wager ?


Hard WorkEvolutionary Economics ... Dixieland Jazz ... Beer Drinking ... there is an evolutionary explanation for everything !

So wot if all this malarkey was not just an intriguing analogy ... suppose it was reality? Just suppose natural selection was the only game in town?

Of course, if in the fullness of time, evidence of human behaviour emerged which falsified the output of Darwin's insight & Adam Smith's forge and human behaviour was indeed the outcome of some supernatural intelligent designer with foresight ... perhaps, a God behind every tree, or even a Bishop, Prince, General or Bureaucrat ... or maybe bog standard Designers indulging in plausible, deliberate, rational, purposeful, intentional, planning? ... and not the evolutionary alternative of trial & error and differential survival ... copy/vary/select ... in that case there will be some red faces ... including ours.

Sooo ...

'rather than being appalled when we see the problems resulting from bad behaviour, we should be astounded & awed by the opportunities resulting from good behaviour' 

Day by day the evidence for the natural selection of good behaviour mounted and became so compelling that we were confident enough to strike a wager with our future great grandchildren's children and their mates - 

Cooperative SynergiesWager

There will continue to be THREE inseparable characteristics of evolving human social economic behaviour which will tend to help survival through the unleashing of a process of technological & institutional innovation involving the generating & testing of a diversity of ideas which discover & accumulate more survival value for the costs incurred than competing alternatives ... ideas & know how, evolve ... first pruned in the imagination and then tested for real against the rigours of reality -


COPY - inheritance - experience - accumulation/imitation of past empirical successes.
'Path Dependency' - social interactions intensity in larger cohesive communities -

 ECONOMIES of SCALE from customary TORT LAW (Cooperative Synergies)
 ... trust ... from HONESTY (instinctive fairness of shares & resentment of cheats from moral sentiments)

... rather than accept the arbitrary dogma of parasitic & predatory Bishops, Princes, Generals or Bureaucrats
'stick to your knitting' ... 'bypass the blockages & let the blood flow' ... '10,000 hours of education & compound interest'


VARY - diversity - experiment - discovery/creativity of individual differences.
'Trial & Error' - 'nobody knows where the next good idea is coming from' -   

SPECIALISATION and TRADE (Personal Responsibility)
... learn ... from HARD WORK (instinctive memory of empirical outcomes from experiments)

... rather than the mythical control of deliberate, rational, purposeful, intentional planning
'mind your own business' ... 'bills have to be paid' ... 'use your imagination'


SELECT - natural selection - differential survival - weeding out failures.
'+ve Feedback Loops' - billions of global deals grow mutual benefits and punish cheats - 

SYNERGIES from TECHNOLOGY (Immune Systems)
... invest ... from THRIFT (instinctive immunity from treachery from Due Diligence, Caveat Emptor)

... rather than the cost up & output down arrogance of inevitable parasites & predators
'get on with the job of empirical science' ... 'you can't pass the buck to others' ... 'save rainy day funds'


Three essential inseparable behavioural characteristics embedded in Complex Adaptive Systems ... increasingly complex, full of change, conflict & scarcity ... put it another way -

1. Start with Ignorance then try Darwin's 'natural selection' -

Copy ( learn - trial & error, discovery & accumulation, weeding out failures)

Vary ( diversify - different folk, at different times, in different places, with different social interactions)

Select ( synergies - specialisation & scale)

2. Unfinished Business - 3% pa growth of 'know how' compound!

We bet that social cooperative behaviour 2+2=5 will tend to out trump selfish compromise 2-2=0 ... the dice are loaded.

Good behaviour is a social survival aid - immunity from treachery - bureaucratic kluge, parasites & predators, tyranny & oppression, bribery & corruption

Will you take the bet?

We won't be around to collect ... by then we will have made a little space for future betterment ... and our future great grandchildren's children and their mates will know a lot more than us about education & compound interest ... for sure!

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